THE SOLAR PEAK: WHY 2024/25 IS THE BEST TIME TO SEE THE NORTHERN LIGHTS IN ICELAND

The Northern Lights are one of nature’s most bewitching spectacles. Ethereal and mercurial, the aurora borealis has intrigued people for centuries. Their myths and legends existed long before anyone could offer a scientific rationale for what was taking place. Even as our understanding has grown, their magic is undimmed, and from autumn to spring, this celestial wonder attracts countless tourists to Iceland in the hope of a sighting.

What does the expected solar maximum of 2024/25 mean for travellers to Iceland? Good news: the Northern Lights have already started showing up this season, so it bodes very well if scientists are expecting the solar maximum could take place in 2024/25 or even beyond. This could potentially be the best time to see the Northern Lights for a while, though of course there have still been glorious displays around the time of the solar minimum.

In this article we’ll take a look at the solar cycle and explore how the solar maximum of 2024/25 could influence your Iceland travel plans.

Iceland’s northerly location close to the Arctic Circle means that the aurora borealis is a frequent visitor to its skies. Yet unlike fireworks displays and drone shows, its appearance can never be guaranteed, and it’s this unpredictability that helps account for its irresistible appeal. The anticipation that builds as you begin your Northern Lights hunt is matched only by the thrill of witnessing this temperamental phenomenon.

Last season was an especially memorable one for the Northern Lights and this season looks like it could be even better. In May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 created a spectacular display much further south than usual across mainland Europe and North America. The skies turned pink and purple and green in a series of arcs, ribbons and curtains of colourful light that danced across the heavens.

Aurora forecasts have a habit of fizzling out in southerly locations, but this one proved to be different. Many people were caught unprepared, grabbing their mobile phones and dashing out into back gardens to snatch a hurried photograph to compare with friends the following day. It was better than nothing, you could say, but in some respects, it could possibly be seen as a teaser for what’s to come.

To understand more about the Northern Lights we need to understand the solar cycle. Solar activity doesn’t happen at a uniform pace. Instead it waxes and wanes, broadly following an approximately 11 year cycle. During this period, the intensity and frequency of sunspots on the sun’s surface changes. These sunspots are areas that look dark on the sun’s surface and are cooler than their surroundings.

A German amateur astronomer called Samuel Schwabe was the first to make significant strides in our formal understanding of sunspot cycles. He spent a lot of time in the first half of the 19th century observing and drawing sunspots. By 1843, he tentatively suggested there might be some kind of cycle, estimating that sunspot activity seemed to follow a ten year pattern.

Inspired by Schwabe’s findings, a Swiss astronomer named Johann Wolf realised that to have a more accurate idea of such a pattern, he’d need more data. He set about collating all the sunspot data he could find, some recorded by Galileo in the 17th century.

The earliest records were too patchy to be conclusive, but Wolf was confident that the numbers from 1755 supported a solar cycle theory. The period from 1755 to 1766 is therefore referred to as Solar Cycle 1 and we’re currently partway through Solar Cycle 25.

Solar Cycle 25 has so far been much more active than scientists expected. The forecast issued in 2019 by the USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), produced in conjunction with NASA, predicted a weak cycle. But such forecasting is in its infancy and in this case, looking at the evidence to date, they’ve got it spectacularly wrong.

A recent article published by Scientific American in 2023 reported that sunspot activity has been way higher than anyone anticipated. In January of that year, for instance, astronomers observed 143 sunspots which was far in excess of the 63 that had been estimated. Solar flares have also been more intense during Solar Cycle 25.

The next solar maximum is forecast to occur sometime between autumn 2024 and 2026. Unfortunately, scientists can’t yet pinpoint the exact time when this solar maximum happens with any precision. Currently, they can only advise us that the solar maximum has passed, once they look back at months of data and carry out their analysis of the figures.

So what have sunspots, solar cycles and solar maximums got to do with the Northern Lights? The solar cycle and auroras are intrinsically linked. Magnetic field lines that occur near sunspots often get tangled and when the do so, there’s an explosion of energy which scientists refer to as a solar flare. A coronal mass ejection (CME) can accompany these solar flares.

When charged particles from a CME reach the earth’s atmosphere, they can trigger auroras. Five such CMEs were ejected in close succession during that May 2024 event. It follows, therefore, that when there are more sunspots, there should be an increased chance of seeing the Northern Lights. As we approach the solar maximum, we could see some more incredible celestial displays.

If you have seen the Northern Lights nearer to home, you might wonder whether it’s worth trying to see them during an overseas trip. We think so: no two aurora displays are alike. Different colours, varying patterns and the random durations of each show combine to encourage travellers to see them again and again.

There are many advantages to seeing the Northern Lights in Iceland, such as the abundance of dark places far from anywhere impacted by light pollution. If you live in a more densely populated area, it’s hard to be able to get far enough away from towns and cities to be able to escape the distant glow of lights and find somewhere really dark. This washes out the Northern Lights and makes them harder to see.

Not so in Iceland, where the countryside is a short drive from Reykjavik. There’s no shortage of places that make good spots to see the aurora. Our distinctive natural and built landmarks, from waterfalls and icebergs to remote churches and lighthouses mean there’s also a wide variety of interesting foreground subjects to give your photographs the wow factor.

Our Northern Lights tours operate throughout the aurora season, beginning in the latter part of August and running until mid-April. You can opt for small group Northern Lights tours as a standalone or combine them with other excursions such as a visit to the attractions of the Golden Circle.

If you prefer to be independent, rent a car and scope out suitable locations in daylight or stay out in the countryside in a hotel that offers an aurora wakeup call for its guests.

Statistically, you’ll have the greatest odds of seeing the aurora borealis in places at high latitudes such as Iceland, and also at the autumn or spring equinoxes, making the prospects for this September and next March doubly exciting. Coming in the shoulder seasons means there’s more daylight which will help you accomplish your other sightseeing goals; the weather is often better than in mid-winter too.

One thing that’s really important when you’re planning a trip based around the hope of seeing the Northern Lights is appreciating that you might not see them at all. This, though disappointing, is another reason why coming to Iceland is a great idea. There’s a wealth of sightseeing opportunities both indoors and outdoors, within Reykjavik and beyond the city limits.

The country’s rugged and dramatic terrain, replete with waterfalls, glaciers, iceberg-strewn black sand beaches, volcanoes and an array of geothermal landforms, means that nature is going to deliver at ground level even if the heavens aren’t cooperating. At Perlan, reached by Reykjavik’s Hop On, Hop Off sightseeing bus, the Áróra show uses 8K projection and surround sound showcases breathtakingly cinematic footage of the Northern Lights within a 150-seat planetarium.

We Icelanders are used to seeing the Northern Lights and have plenty of advice to help you ensure your aurora quest is successful. Here are a few tips to consider:

Avoid a full moon if you can

The full moon floods the night sky with light, which is the opposite of the optimum conditions you’re looking for on your aurora hunt. If you can, book your Northern Lights tour for when there’s a new moon as this will minimise celestial light pollution. But rest assured that it is still possible to view the Northern Lights when the moon’s out – even in urban areas – if they’re strong enough.

Expect to have to wait around

Most Northern Lights tours involve standing around in the cold for a while, as the aurora has a habit of showing up – sometimes fleetingly, and then taking a break.

Our experienced guides study the cloud cover forecast and Kp Index predictions so that you’ll head for a location with a good chance of an appearance, but even so, the Northern Lights don’t show up in a particular place at a particular time. It’s a bit more hit and miss than that, so you’ll need to be patient

Dress warmly

Make sure you layer up your clothing so that you don’t feel too cold when you’re not on the move. You’ll feel the benefit of thermal base layers, woollen jumpers – such as our traditional lopapeysa – and of course a suitable coat.

Thick gloves, a warm hat and a scarf or snood that can protect your face are all recommended. Boots with a thick tread so that the cold from the ground can’t permeate up into your feet are also essential. Slip a pack of hand warmers into your pocket too.

Know how your camera works

As you watch the aurora borealis dance across the heavens, it’s natural to want to record the moment to show your friends and family. But the last thing you want is to waste the opportunity by fiddling with your camera’s settings in a panic, missing the show in the process.

Figure out the settings you’re likely to need and practice some low-light photography beforehand while the pressure’s off, and you’re more likely to get it right on the night.

Manage your expectations

The Northern Lights appear a lot more faintly to the naked eye – sometimes they will be grey, rather than the green or purple you’ve been expecting. Hang around, though, as the initial activity often explodes into something far more intense as the evening progresses. Although, to see the colours really pop, you might be better off looking through your camera or smartphone too.

We operate this tour dependent on a number of factors, namely solar activity, cloud cover and weather conditions. If you are planning your trip to Iceland in the hope of seeing the Northern Lights, then come for as many days as you (and your budget) can spare. If you’re hoping to join one of our aurora tours, we’d recommend you book it for the beginning of your holiday.

Unfortunately, sometimes aurora tours have to be cancelled if we’re certain we have no chance of seeing the Northern Lights. If that’s the case, however, we make every effort to reschedule it for a later date. Rebooking is a seamless process and is free of charge. If it’s not possible to find an alternative date that works for you, we refund your money promptly, so you really do have nothing to lose.

If the clouds roll in during a tour and it’s a bust, all is not lost. We offer another chance if the tour is unsuccessful. For those who don’t see any auroras at all during their tour, you will be issued another ticket for a tour, free of charge. It can be used up to two years after the original tour date. We know seeing the Northern Lights is something really special and customer satisfaction is a top priority.

Though it’s important to have realistic expectations, with careful planning, plenty of patience and a bit of luck, you can improve your chances of viewing the Northern Lights in Iceland as we approach the period of the solar maximum.

Let us be your host as we go after this heavenly delight together!